Intel Q3 2026: the market punishes the guidance, not the quarter

Intel reported its third-quarter 2026 results on October 29: revenue of $16.51 billion, up 21% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.52 versus $0.40 expected. The quarter itself beat estimates.

What sank the stock was the outlook: fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $15.0-16.0 billion versus the $17.07 billion consensus (LSEG), with adjusted EPS guided at $0.25 versus $0.43 expected. On top of that, the October explosion at its Kiryat Gat (Israel) plant will erase roughly $600 million of revenue over two quarters and constrains the supply of AI server chips. CFO David Zinsner said Intel does not expect positive cash flow this year, with capex of around $20 billion in 2026.

The reaction: a 29% drop at 14:23 UTC on October 30 (Barchart). At 10:52 ET the stock was down 27.5% (CNBC), after touching an intraday low of $64.11. Before the drop, the stock had more than doubled in 2026 (Reuters).

Source: Intel Q3 2026 results; Reuters via RTE (Oct 30, 2026); CNBC (quote, 10:52 ET); Barchart (14:23 UTC). Chart and post on X: https://x.com/Stocksdam/status/2116186372486627652