US 2s10s spread: the curve keeps flattening

On 20 October 2026 the gap between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields stood at +33 basis points, down from +51 bp two weeks earlier and from +72 bp at the start of the year.

The curve has remained positive throughout 2026, never inverting, but the direction is clear: a steady flattening as the 2-year holds near 4.8% while the 10-year pulls back from its October highs. A flatter curve usually reflects markets pricing restrictive short rates against slower expected growth.

Source: US Treasury, daily par yield curve rates.