The front end is the calm end

The calmest corner of the US Treasury curve in 2026 is the front end. The 2-year yield has spent the whole of October in a 10 basis point band (4.74% to 4.84%) and closed 20 October at 4.79%, according to the US Treasury daily par yield curve.

That calm is new. Over the year the 2-year has travelled from a low of 3.38% on 27 February to a high of 4.92% on 28 September. It started 2026 at 3.47%, so even after a quiet month it still sits more than 130 basis points above where the year began.

While the 10-year makes the headlines with a fresh year high of 5.31% on 5 October, the short end has quietly priced out most of the rate cuts that were expected when the year started.

Source: US Treasury, daily treasury par yield curve rates (data through 20 October 2026).