The 10-year, on the edge of 5% as the Fed splits

The 10-year Treasury closed Tuesday, October 27 at 4.99%, per the U.S. Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. October has seen only two closes below 5%: the 22nd (4.96%) and the 27th (4.99%). The month's high was 5.31% (October 5), also the year's high. The market went into the decision with the 10-year one basis point from 5%, a level that has dominated the close for nearly the entire month.

The decision came on Wednesday the 28th: the Fed held rates at 3.75-4.00%, but with the committee split 10-2. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted for a 25-basis-point hike. The official statement describes an economy "expanding at a strong pace" and repeats that "inflation remains elevated".

The combined read: a 10-year on the edge of 5% and two dissents calling for more hikes show a market and a Fed looking in the same direction, toward a high long-rate regime that is not over yet. What to watch now: if the 10-year crosses 5% and stays there after this statement, the market confirms that regime heading into December. Data and sources: U.S. Treasury (close 27/10/2026) and official FOMC statement (28/10/2026).